Hispanic demographics and the new majority

I've been meaning to write about this post of Greg's for a few days now. The busy life of a blogger doesn't bend easily for that sort of thing.

I agree mostly with what he says. While Hispanics could prove to be the tide that turns us back to a Democrati majority nationwide, Hispanics seem to be splitting tickets a lot more here in Texas. Just because they are a majority doesn't mean we are a majority.

I think there are a lot of reasons for this.

The first has to be that the Democratic party only seems to pay attention to the Hispanic community during elections. The rest of the time, we keep talking about how we need to Hank Hill and Bubba to vote for us.

The second is that the most reliable indicator of voting probability is still church attendance. The more often you go to church, the more likely you are to vote, and the more likely you are to vote Republican.

Which leads us to No. 3, you can't expect people to vote based on skin color. While you can draw broad generalizations about geography and ethnicity and the liklihood of voting for one party or the other, just assuming that all Hispanic people are going to vote Democratic is stupid. Thinking they are all going to vote Democratic because of immigration policy is stereotyping and a little racist.

Not all Hispanics are going to care if we shut down the border. They were born here, so were their parents, so were their grandparents. Big deal if we have a better policy when it comes to immigration, that doesn't help them send their kids to college or keep their small business in the black. I think a large number of Hispanics are aattracted to the Republican party because of the "tax relief" rhetoric and the idea that they might get ahead in life by voting these guys. It is going to be up to us to effectively message our ideals about everybody succeeding in life and the fact that our numbers add up and the Republicans can run an economy.

No. 4 is the other big reason Hispanics are attracted to the Republicans, the Bible. Remember church attendance? Many Hispanics are conservative Catholics, and their religious ideology fits with the conservative evangelicals' political ideology. The Republicans are the party of God, so they are going to vote Republican.

This one I think is the big kicker here in Texas, George W. Bush was immensely popular with just about every segment of the population. He was a shitty governor, but he would mumble something in Spanish and Texas Hispanics voted for him to the tune of 40%. Even more the last time around in 2004. I don't think Rick Perry is as popular in the Hispanic community as Bush, so I don't think he's going to get the same kind of numbers.

So how do we fix it? Do I have to do everything?

We really need to target Hispanics. Focused campaign advertizing on two groups within the Hispanic community, small business owners and the economically disadvantaged. In other words, poor Hispanics. Hispanic millionaires aren't going to want hear about how much we want to tax millionaires, but people in geographic areas where there is lower earning power will be more sympatheitc to the populist message we tend to go with. Plus, they're the people we'll be trying to help the most.

The second group we pretty much have, it's that former group we need to spend more time on. A positive economic message should help.

Well, that's Dr. Nate's prescription for success (disclaimer: Nate is not actually a doctor and never attended medical school. If you wish to call him Dr. Nate, that's cool, though).

Comments

[michael]

I'm often surprised that the "party of the people" democrats don't reach out more to Hispanics. In West Texas, I've noticed, the bulk of the local Democratic party, it seems, is Hispanic. Largely, this segment is underserved by both parties, but exactly who does the most underserving depends on the region. I'd like to see why these trends exist.