Chet Offensive

Another quality offering from Dan Genz today, he gets some info on potential challengers to Chet Edwards in CD-17.

Five different guys seem to be interested in running in the GOP primary, none of which have any actual office experience. The closest thing to a veteran officeholder is Pete Sessions' former legislative director, Tucker Anderson. Even though beating Edwards is a high priority, a lot of guys with name ID turned down the NRCC. So we get five no names.

You better believe they will have name ID before the primary is over though. The NRCC will make sure of it. Edwards survived in a Republican gerrymandered district, so it is really a matter of pride that they unseat him and they will stop at nothing. Money from all over will come pouring in to feed whatever Republican ends up with the nomination.

I'd like to sit here and make a bold prediction that Edwards will triumph yet again, but the reality is that there is a really big variable and that's who shows up at the polls for the GOP. If Strayhorn is successful in getting lots of new voters to vote in the GOP primary, a lot more moderate and independent-minded people in my district may help select a more moderate and "electable" Republican. Then Chet is in some trouble.

But if Strayhorn fails and the hardcore religious conservatives are the majority for the GOP, they'll probably do what they did last time when they nominated Arlene Wohlgemuth, pick someone so hard right that not even most Republicans could stomach voting for her. Then Chet can win in a district that went 64% for President Bush in November, like last time.

Comments

[Crocodile Rock]

I'll make the prediction, even if I don't think it's that bold... Edwards in a cakewalk.

Even though he is a liberal in a conservative district (even more so after redistricting), he has the power of incumbency, including franking privileges, enormous name recognition, and he's probably pulled in enough pork to keep him in for a while longer.

I think it will take a more prominent Wacoan to ever unseat him. Although I don't really remember anything about Wolgemuth's platform, I don't recall it being hard right. I think her problem was low name recognition, since she wasn't from Waco. Waco is by far the largest city in the district, and an outsider's chances are negligible. Chet has had a few close calls, but they were higher-profile opponents, in my opinion - Jay Mathis, Hugh Shine, etc. I think a future winner could be someone paying his dues now in the Texas House or Senate, like Kip Averitt or Doc Anderson, or possibly a respected businessman or former mayor.

I've been following Waco politics for year, and never even heard of a single one of the possible candidates. Like I said, Edwards in a cakewalk.

[Nate]

No name recognition can sometimes be a blessing in disguise. One of the reasons that Chet was able to beat Arlene was her record in the State house. The CHIP funding ads were very powerful and they painted a negative picture of Arlene.

These 5 guys have no records to call them on or use against them.

I'm not going to say cakewalk, but I will say that I would lean toward Chet being re-elected from the forecast of today.

[Cincinnatus]

I don't think winning in a district that's 64% Republican can ever be called a cakewalk, but what's with this idea that Chet is a liberal?

Let's all say it together, centrist.

As far as Wohlgemuth's platform, I don't know, but I'd say kicking 150,000 kids off of CHIPs, making an additional 500,000 lose their eye and dental benefits, while advocating for the replacement of the income tax with a 28% national sales tax and not doing a thing in the Leg to clean up Waco's sole source of drinking water would qualify as hard right.

Nate, as far as what Strayhorn does I think you're half-right. Strayhorn could very well push a moderate Republican up into first if she can bring more moderates and independents into the Republican primary. But... if this is a multi-candidate field then any candidate is going to be hardpressed to get the 50% plus one they need to avoid a runoff, and I'd have a hard time believing that we'd see two moderate Rs in a run-off, with no right-winger to be seen.

If this does happen, then the moderate R would have a much harder time trying to re-energize his/her base (by the way, where are the women candidates?) and persuade other voters over for a run-off.

The ideal R candidate would come from Bryan or College Station. The Republican's gonna win Johnson and Hood County to begin with, way too conservative and a decent enough candidate won't get blown out of the water in Waco as Wohlgemuth did. Which leaves Brazos County as the swing county, and there's no better way to give you a couple of points in a swing area than to be the hometown boy/girl.

[Nate]

Excellent points.